The Straits Times
May 28, 2004

Wiranto Election Victory Will Put US in a Spot

Charges of rights abuses cause unease, but this may be allayed if he takes steps to show greater concern for human rights

By Roger Mitton,

WASHINGTON - The possibility that Golkar candidate Wiranto may become the next president of Indonesia is causing concern in the United States.

The former Indonesian Army general has been accused of complicity in a notorious massacre of demonstrators in Timor Leste in 1999.

There has been talk of a United Nations indictment against him for human rights abuses.

Although the allegations remain unproven, they may cause severe problems in relations between Washington and Jakarta if Mr Wiranto wins the presidential election.

Mr William Liddle, a political science professor at Ohio State University, said: 'A Wiranto presidency will make it more difficult for the executive branch of the US government to deal with Indonesia, because there will be constant pressure from Congress and from human rights groups.'

That pressure could lead to Mr Wiranto being refused permission to enter the United States.

More likely in the short term, the US Congress could tighten the legislative restrictions on military ties with Indonesia that were put in place as a result of the Timor Leste atrocity five years ago.

Mr Larry Niksch, a specialist in Asian Affairs at the US Library of Congress Researh Centre, said: 'Congress will not look upon a Wiranto presidency with great favour. And one cannot rule out specific legislative action in Congress to impose penalties or sanctions on Indonesia.'

But last month, US Ambassador Ralph Boyce said Washington could work with Mr Wiranto.

'We can work with anybody that comes out of a free election process,' he said. 'We're not involved in selecting individual candidates, supporting or opposing individual candidates...It's the election process that we care
deeply about and it seems to be going very well.'

Any qualms about Mr Wiranto could be partly ameliorated in US eyes if he were to take steps showing a greater concern for human rights.

Some feel he has already started to go down that path by choosing Mr Salahuddin Wahid, a former deputy chairman of Indonesia's human rights commission, as his vice-presidential running mate.

Mr Donald Emmerson, an Indonesia expert at Stanford University, California, said: 'If Wiranto's Cabinet choices included individuals known as champions of human rights, that too may stimulate some second thoughts on the part of US legislators inclined to punish Indonesia for electing him.'

But many feel that what is more likely to stimulate such thoughts and thus neutralise US fears about a Wiranto presidency is his strong stance on security and counter-terrorism. That issue transcends all else in American eyes.

Mr Emmerson said: 'Given America's concern with security, including the pursuit and prevention of terrorism in Indonesia, Wiranto's military background and apparent willingness to crack down on Jemaah Islamiah are potential assets to be weighed against his debits on human rights grounds.'

But there is also another candidate who is viewed in Washington as having those same valuable assets, but without the negative human rights reputation that bedevils Mr Wiranto.

Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who propelled his fledgling Democratic Party to major gains in last month's parliamentary elections and who is another retired general, is seen by many in the US as the most desirable candidate.

Mr Niksch said: 'My guess is that within the Pentagon and the State Department, Bambang Yudhoyono is probably looked at with a fair amount of positive optimism.'

Others agree that in Washington, Mr Bambang is widely regarded as a cleaner and firmer candidate than either Mr Wiranto or incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

He is also perceived in the US as being the candidate who could do the most to restore economic growth and maintain public order in Indonesia.

As regards Mrs Megawati, the US views her presidency as having been defined by under-achievement, both domestically and in the fight against violent extremism.

'Certainly, for those who wanted a tougher stance on terrorism, she's been a disappointment,' Mr Liddle said.

Still, despite privately expressed preferences, officials in Washington have been careful not to publicly extol or disparage any of the candidates.

The official US position is that it is up to the Indonesian people to decide who is going to govern them and it is not the place of the United States to pick favourites.

Of course, Washington has vociferously supported Indonesia's democratisation process and its main concern is to see that process continue in the presidential elections.

Naturally, there is a desire that Indonesians elect someone who has the authority to tackle tough problems like reform in the military and pervasive corruption, as well as being a leader who will continue to drive forward
political reforms.

Regardless of who is victorious, Washington hopes that Indonesia will be able to readopt a more decisive role in the affairs of the region.

'The US would like to see Indonesia playing the positive, moderate regional and global role that it played under Suharto,' said Mr Liddle.

'It is hard to see it happening with Wiranto, but it could happen with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.'